With all the buzz surrounding hybrids, just about every automaker is
trying to carve out a piece of the burgeoning market for
environmentally friendly cars and trucks that harness electric power to
boost fuel-efficiency -- including some which harbor misgivings about
the technology.
At the upcoming North American International Auto
Show, General Motors Corp. will unveil a bargain-priced, gas-electric
Saturn Vue Green Line, while Toyota Motor Corp. -- the leader in the
field -- will display a hybrid version of its best-selling Camry.
Ford
Motor Co., the first U.S. automaker to sell gas-electric vehicles, is
going a step further with the sporty Reflex show car featuring a
diesel-hybrid powertrain.
Over the next two years, the number of
hybrid models on sale will more than triple to include gas-electric
versions of the Lexus GS450, Hyundai Accent, Kia Rio, Chevy Tahoe, GMC
Yukon and Chevy Malibu, according to consulting firm J.D. Power and
Associates. Using technology developed for Ford's Mercury Mariner
hybrid sport utility vehicle, the automaker's Mazda affiliate will
launch a hybrid version of the Tribute SUV.
Former skeptics such
as Nissan Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG also are developing hybrids,
the fastest-growing segment in the market for fuel-efficient
alternatives to cars and trucks powered by conventional gas engines.
Nissan
CEO Carlos Ghosn previously said hybrid technology was costly and
complicated. But last year, he clambered on the bandwagon, and Nissan
plans to offer a hybrid version of its popular Altima sedan in 2007.
After pushing fuel-efficient diesel engines, the Chrysler Group is
developing a gas-electric Dodge Durango SUV.
Some critics grouse
that the fuel-savings don't cover the higher cost of the hybrids, but
demand for gas-electric cars soared last year as automakers rolled out
models and gas prices spiked to record highs above $3 a gallon.
In
a sign of how effectively hybrids captured the moral high ground, all
five finalists for Green Car Journal's 2006 Green Car of the year are
hybrids: the Honda Accord and Civic hybrids, and the Lexus RX 400h,
Toyota Highlander and Mercury Mariner SUVs.
Technology
enthusiasts and hard-core environmentalists initially embraced hybrids,
but studies show mainstream buyers are now putting hybrids on their
shopping lists.
"It looks like a good third of people would
consider a hybrid next time they buy," said George Peterson, president
of Tustin, Calif.-based consulting firm Auto Pacific.
In 2005, a
year when Detroit's automakers struggled to sustain sales, Toyota's
Prius hybrid was the fastest-selling model in the market, spending an
average of just two days on dealer lots, according to J.D. Power.
In
less than seven years since the U.S. launch of the first hybrid -- the
quirky Honda Insight -- sales of gas-electric vehicles have surged from
fewer than 20,000 in 1999 to an estimated 200,000 in 2005. J.D. Power
predicts hybrids will triple their share of the U.S. auto market from
one percent last year to 3 percent by 2008, even though they cost
thousands of dollars more than similar vehicles powered only by
internal combustion engines.
However, as it remains uncertain
which technologies will dominate ultimately in the effort to cut
vehicle emissions, automakers are also investing in other promising
alternatives, such as new, cleaner and quieter diesel engines, fuel
cell-powered vehicles and innovative technological combinations.
Exploring all options
"Our
technology strategy is, in the near term, to improve our gasoline and
diesel engines, and for the medium term, we're heavily focused on
hybrids," said Larry Burns, GM vice president of research and
development.
For the long run, GM is sticking with its belief
that hydrogen-powered fuel cells hold the answer. "In every study we've
done, fuel cells surface as the most promising long-term pathway for
the industry -- even if you use fossil fuels, like natural gas, as the
source of hydrogen," Burns said.
Currently, though, researchers
have not figured out affordable ways to store and transport hydrogen
safely to a large network of fueling stations. Major automakers have
developed hydrogen-powered vehicles but are testing them in fleets,
such as city bus systems, where hydrogen storage and fueling can be
carefully controlled.
At the Detroit show, Ford will unveil an
emission-free vehicle with an internal combustion engine that can run
on gas, ethanol or hydrogen.
"Hydrogen is often seen as a
long-term solution, and we recognize as a business that you don't
invent an infrastructure overnight," said Graham Hoare, Ford's director
of powertrain, advanced and research engineering. "What we're trying to
demonstrate is that hydrogen can be used to power mainstream products."
Germany's
BMW also has developed a car equipped with an internal combustion
engine that runs on hydrogen -- but the Bavarian automaker is now
hedging its bets and has teamed up with GM and DaimlerChrysler to
develop hybrid powertrains, too.
Honda, a pioneer in hybrid
technology, has developed a fuel-cell car that runs on hydrogen. It
will showcase its vision for cleaner energy at the show by displaying
its latest Home Energy Station, a generation unit which draws on
natural gas as its primary energy source to provide enough hydrogen to
power a vehicle and supply electricity for an average-size home.
Ford
is aggressively pursuing gas-electric hybrid technology, pledging to
produce a quarter of a million annually by 2010 and beefing up its
ranks of hybrid specialists. But with the Reflex, the Dearborn
automaker is also refining its diesel technology. "I think there'll be
both diesels and hybrids around," Hoare said.
In Europe, vehicles
with new and refined diesel engines now account for roughly half of all
new cars sold. Gas is highly taxed, costing twice as much in some
European countries as it does in the United States. Consumers generate
big savings by driving vehicles with diesel engines, which are about 30
percent more fuel-efficient than gas engines.
In the U.S. light
vehicle market, however, sales of diesel-powered cars have been
hampered by strict regulations on nitrous oxide and particulate
emissions -- which are spewed in larger amounts by diesel-powered
vehicles than cars and trucks that run on gas. Most European automakers
do not offer diesel cars in California and other states that have
adopted its emission standards.
But DaimlerChrysler, whose
Mercedes-Benz division has labored for years to produce cleaner diesel
cars, is expected to announce a technological breakthrough at the show
that would allow it to market diesel cars in all 50 states.
Green is the new black
While
diesel specialists face an uphill battle, hybrid vehicle manufacturers
are benefiting from tax breaks and other incentives, such as access to
carpool lanes in major cities, for drivers of gas-electric cars.
Pointing
to the months-long waiting lists for the Prius, many industry experts
forecast hybrid sales will surge as more manufacturers enter the
segment, increasing the supply of available models.
But not all
hybrids are selling as briskly as the $21,725 Prius, which is
unmistakably a hybrid. "There's no easy competitor to the Prius, and
there's no non-hybrid version to compare it with," said Mark McCready,
director of pricing strategy at Carsdirect, an online car-shopping site.
By
contrast, "the Accord (hybrid) is selling at large discounts, and the
Escape is going for the (discounted) supplier price, with $1,000 in
dealer incentives."
Demand is strong for Honda's new Civic
hybrid, but there are plentiful supplies of Toyota Highlander and Lexus
RX 400h SUV hybrids, McCready said. "The price point will be extremely
important for hybrids to continue to sell."
Critics of hybrid
technology -- particularly Toyota's full-hybrid system, whose gas and
electric motors can independently power the car -- complain that the
fuel savings don't cover the price premium.
Dave Markus, a
retired policeman from Depew, N.Y., and two-time hybrid owner,
estimates it will take 3 1/2 years to recoup the additional $3,000 he
spent on a 2006 Civic hybrid. "Other people who do the math may say
it's not worth it," Markus said.
But the fuel savings weren't the
only reason he considered hybrids. "You stop less often for gas. You
can go 500, 550, even 600 miles on a tank of gas if you want to," he
said. He calculates that the Civic gets 49 miles to the gallon in
combined city and highway driving.
"I like the idea of being less
reliant on foreign oil," he added. Many hybrid owners describe a
fascination with the new technology, while other hybrid owners express
altruistic motives. Few admit to a desire to show off their green
credentials -- but Peterson suspects that underlies the success of the
Prius. "It's a unique looking car," he said. "People are able
immediately to say: that person's an environmentalist."
If
automakers have underestimated the "show-off" factor, they may be in
for a disappointment, Peterson says. The newest models -- and those in
the pipeline -- are hybrid versions of existing vehicles with only
discreet indications -- a small badge or minor name change -- of the
dual powertrain.
Because most hybrid vehicles are equipped with
gauges showing when, and under what circumstances, drivers generate the
biggest fuel savings, their owners have grown aware of the extent to
which driving habits also influence fuel-efficiency.
Steven
Turgeon of Atlanta has boosted the mileage on his 2004 Civic hybrid to
more than 60 miles per gallon this winter from 55 two years ago by
driving less aggressively.
"Our family also has a 2001 Grand
Caravan," Turgeon said. "Using the same lessons learned in our hybrid
car, we have raised its (fuel) economy from about 16 mpg to the lower
20s, simply by dumping the aggressive driving habit."
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