Instead of winding down coal, oil, and gas as promised, governments around the world are preparing to expand fossil fuel production — a move that scientists warn could blow past global climate goals.
A new analysis reveals that nations plan to extract more fossil fuels by 2030 than they did a year ago. Far from reducing reliance, the world is on track to produce over twice the amount consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, the internationally agreed threshold to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.
Researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute call it a “dangerous course,” one that is rapidly burning through the planet’s shrinking carbon budget. Some experts say that the budget — the amount of CO₂ humanity can still emit without permanently overshooting 1.5°C — is already spent.
Fossil giants dig in
The Production Gap 2025 report examined 20 major producers, which are responsible for 80% of the global fossil fuel output. Only the UK, Australia, and Norway plan to reduce oil and gas production by 2030. Eleven countries — including Russia, India, and Colombia — have actually raised their targets since 2023. Coal mining is set to expand in Russia, India, Colombia, and Australia, while the US, China, Germany, and Indonesia promise modest cutbacks.
Transition delayed
Renewables are booming, but instead of replacing fossil fuels, they are being added on top of existing demand. The result: fossil energy systems remain entrenched, bolstered by the lobbying power of the oil, coal, and gas industries. Climate pledges made in Paris and reiterated at subsequent UN summits risk becoming little more than rhetoric.
The paradox of cheap fuels
As electrification accelerates — with EVs and heat pumps spreading across households — demand for fossil fuels should decline. But lower demand could drive prices down, spurring fresh consumption. This “rebound effect” underscores the need for international agreements to actually cap fossil fuel production rather than simply trusting market forces.
“Climate chaos” ahead
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will press leaders this week in New York to bring stronger pledges ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil. But current national plans are nowhere near enough. Without a dramatic change of course, he warns, the world faces “climate chaos,” alongside severe economic and social disruption.
Despite near-universal acknowledgment that fossil fuels are the single largest driver of the climate crisis, governments appear to be sprinting in the opposite direction. It’s as if, critics say, the world is trying to put out a fire with gasoline.
