2026: Three futures to choose from
In a world shaped by climate stress, technological acceleration, and political instability, neither fear nor blind hope is particularly helpful. What we need is a sober sense of what is still possible.
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In a world shaped by climate stress, technological acceleration, and political instability, neither fear nor blind hope is particularly helpful. What we need is a sober sense of what is still possible.
Several years ago, I argued that dehumanization had become an unstoppable force in our societies. Since then, the trend has only accelerated, climbing ever higher on the global index of misery. In the few independent media outlets and free forums that still exist, speculation about this phenomenon continues. Yet these discussions increasingly feel like rearguard battles. More and more media are being absorbed by owners who have no regard for free speech — and sometimes not even for truth itself.
Green growth is a popular concept to counter the threat of ecological collapse. It soothes people’s minds and suggests there is an easy way out. But it is based on the wrong premises. More so, it’s a mere frame to help sustain the economy that caused our present problems in the first place, and that is bound to fail.
Donald Trump’s extravagant policies have consequences for both the United States and the rest of the world. However, when placed in a broader context, these developments seem to be merely accelerating an already ongoing trajectory rather than creating it. Perhaps the rise of a president with his particular brand of leadership was even inevitable.
As the impacts of climate change become impossible to ignore, the incoming president remains steadfast in his denial. Meanwhile, global warming has surpassed the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first full year, and political developments are taking on dangerous dimensions—fueled in part by the opportunities created by climate change.
Tipping points are a frequently quoted tool for social change and climate protection among activists and supporters. The idea that it takes 25% of supporters of a plan to create change is popular. But does this conclusion hold up under the pressure of social media?
Elon Musk is a master in attracting attention with provocative oneliners and suggestive tweets. Many of those were aimed at boosting his green image, and that of his companies and products. Like Tesla electric cars. The facts, however, tell a different story.
We must hope. Hope is good. Politicians, businesspeople, and even climate activists keep hammering it home, but research shows that people who worry are more likely to take action together.
IPCC reports still underestimate risk for extreme climate events because of downplaying language and choice of calculation methods.
Datacenters are notorious for their power consumption and their effect on climate change. Now, the explosive growth of AI adds an extra dimension. But there is more, like huge underreporting of emissions, and the real climate costs of LNG.
