COP after COP forces many thousands of delegates to cram in faraway places, only to add to the long lists of promises and pledges, of which only few ever see results. Next stop: oil-soaked Baku, Azerbaijan. And the latest news: the COP CEO is lobbying for the oil industry.
There they are gathering for COP29 to deliberate the planet’s energy future. Azerbaijan, with 90% of its exports tied to fossil fuels, serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead as the world decides whether to prioritize economic gains from fossil fuels or commit to sustainable alternatives. The summit arrives amid concerning signals from the U.S., with an anticipated policy shift back to “drill, baby, drill” under Trump’s influence, raising doubts about global commitments to clean energy.
Latest news: COP CEO lobbies for oil
The CEO of COP29, Elnur Soltanov, who is also Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister, has been recorded allegedly agreeing to help arrange fossil fuel deals at the climate summit in exchange for event sponsorship. In undercover calls organized by the campaign group Global Witness, posing as an oil and gas company, Soltanov mentioned a potential future for fossil fuels “perhaps forever” and connected the fake investor with Socar, Azerbaijan’s national oil and gas company. This incident has intensified calls to ban fossil fuel companies and lobbyists from COP meetings. The UNFCCC, which oversees COP, states officials should not leverage their positions for private gain and expect impartiality, raising questions about the integrity of COP29’s leadership.
Although the U.S. election outcome is seen as a setback, climate advocates, like former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres – against better judgment? – insist it won’t derail the global push for decarbonization and the Paris Agreement’s goals. COP29 continues a long series of UN climate conferences dating back to 1992, yet despite these talks, emissions remain high, and climate-induced disasters are escalating worldwide.
Not at COP29
At COP29, world leaders will reaffirm commitments to the 1.5°C goal, aiming for net zero emissions within two decades. That is still on the program, while everyone knows we have past the mark. And which world leaders, you may ask when looking at the list of absentees that includes the leaders of the most important players.
Key leaders who will not attend:
- United States: President Joe Biden will not travel to the event.
- European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not attend due to political developments in Brussels.
- Brazil: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has canceled his trip following a head injury.
- Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has canceled his planned trip to deal with a political crisis at home.
- Russia: President Vladimir Putin will not attend.
- France: President Emmanuel Macron will not attend.
- China: President Xi Jinping is not mentioned in the UN’s latest agenda for leaders’ speeches.
- Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not expected to attend for the third year in a row.
- India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not listed among those requesting to speak.
- Japan: Not mentioned in the UN’s latest agenda for leaders’ speeches.
- Mexico: Not mentioned in the UN’s latest agenda for leaders’ speeches.
- Prime Minister James Marape of Papua New Guinea announced the country would not attend Cop29 in “protest at the big nations” for a lack of “quick support to victims of climate change”.
Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, emphasized that a high-carbon future is unsustainable and dangerous for all. Despite growing anti-net zero sentiment in regions like the U.S. and Europe, COP29’s focus remains on finding the financial means to support a global clean energy transition. Estimates from the Energy Transitions Commission suggest around $3.5 trillion is needed annually until 2050 to overhaul energy systems, while the UN’s climate network puts the total at $125 trillion by mid-century.
To put that figure into perspective: $ 3.5 trillion represents more than one year of economic growth of the world economy.
While the figures seem daunting, much of the money already exists in global energy spending, with $3 trillion currently invested in fossil-fuel-based industries each year. For developed countries, shifting investment from high-carbon to low-carbon infrastructure is achievable with strong governance, is the mantra. Fact is that governance is moving away from that transition while, for developing countries, accessing the necessary capital remains challenging due to high interest rates and investor demands. Africa, rich in solar and wind resources, for example, still has fewer solar panels than Belgium due to prohibitive financing conditions.
Financial reform is central to COP29’s agenda, with discussions on establishing a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance to support developing nations in their green transitions. The existing $100 billion annual goal, set at COP15 in Copenhagen, was met two years late, damaging trust among developing countries. COP29’s NCQG, based on an in-depth analysis by economists Nicholas Stern and Vera Songwe, estimates that $2.4 trillion per year is needed for developing nations to cut emissions and protect against climate impacts. Approximately half of this could be sourced domestically, leaving a $1 trillion annual gap expected to be filled by wealthy nations and through reformed multilateral institutions like the World Bank.
However, no developed country has committed to a specific contribution, and the goal remains collective, without individual country targets. Likely sources for funding include global taxes on high-carbon activities, taxes on frequent flyers, wealth taxes, and redirection of subsidies from fossil fuels to sustainable investments. Though the U.S. under Trump is expected to resist, experts believe the NCQG’s success won’t hinge solely on American contributions, as Europe remains a major financial contributor to climate efforts.
Beyond finance, COP29 will address the urgent need to strengthen national climate targets, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit updated NDCs by February, with many, like the UK, pledging to announce their plans during COP29. Brazil, hosting COP30 in November 2024, is pushing for countries to submit detailed, ambitious NDCs that align with a net zero trajectory.
A central issue at COP29 will be the future of global energy systems. Last year’s COP28 in Dubai marked a historic commitment to “transition away” from fossil fuels, yet oil-rich nations, notably Saudi Arabia, have since attempted to dilute this commitment. With Trump’s anticipated anti-climate stance, oil-producing nations may feel empowered to resist stricter measures. UN climate chief Simon Stiell emphasized that Baku’s outcomes remain crucial, as unchecked global warming threatens economic stability and household finances worldwide.
In conclusion, COP29 in Baku presents a critical opportunity for the international community to address both financial and policy gaps in climate action. While rich countries’ commitments and stronger governance are essential, it is equally vital to ensure equitable access to funds for developing countries. The summit’s success will depend on reconciling the divergent interests of developed and developing nations, with funding mechanisms that support a sustainable, resilient future for all. So far, that has proven to be a revolving fata morgana.
Read more in The Guardian
