Electric cars emit more CO2 than traditional cars at production

Electric and hybrid cars produce more carbon emissions during production than standard vehicles. That casts a different light on the rapid transition to electric transportation that climate activists advocate. It can even be worse: some EVs emit more CO2 than a petrol car. [ Updated ]

According to various reports, electric and hybrid cars create more carbon emissions during their production but are still greener overall. A report by Ricardo highlights the growing importance of accounting for whole-life carbon emissions when comparing the greenhouse gas emissions of low-carbon vehicles.

Some of the CO2 savings made while using low-carbon vehicles are offset by increased emissions caused during their production and, to a lesser extent, disposal. However, overall electric and hybrid vehicles still have lower carbon footprints than normal cars.

Over time, the advantage of EVs over fossil cars should increase, according to this 2024 research. Not everywhere at the same speed, though, depending heavily on the sustainability of local production circumstances. And these circumstances are changing rapidly, as we will see later.

Perverse effect: electric cars’ co2 emissions first go up

In large parts of the world, an accelerated replacement of fossil fuel-propelled cars by electric ones still may lead to a perverse effect. Instead of reducing CO2 emissions in the short term, they will increase. Producing an electric vehicle emits almost twice as much greenhouse gas as a conventional one. It takes several years, depending on the annual mileage, to break even.

The calculation is simple: the extra emissions from production should be compensated by the savings when operating the vehicle.

But there are complications. When a new car is sold, the old one usually enters the used car market and remains in use. At the end of their life cycle, some 5% of cars are scrapped annually, far fewer than the number of new cars produced. And new conventional cars emit considerably less during operation than older ones, further reducing the lifetime footprint advantage. (The carbon footprint of an electric car should be compared to a new, state-of-the-art conventional car of the same size, which it actually replaces. But electric replacements also tend to be larger than the cars they replace.)

On average, we look at some 4 tonnes of extra co2 per electric car produced, which has to be offset by 0.5 tonnes annually of prevented emissions. According to these figures, it would take some 8 years to break even. (Given electric cars run on 100% renewable energy)

Worst choice: SUV’s

When it comes to the type of car, size matters. The bigger and more powerful the car, the heavier the battery pack it has to carry. Bigger is less efficient, ultimately resulting in an EV being even more polluting than a petrol-powered car.

But the picture is changing again

Based on recent estimates, the average EV in the US is heavier and more SUV-like; in Europe, it’s mixed but still SUV-leaning; and in China, it’s lighter on average because its volume leaders include many small, cheap EVs.

Market mix by region

• US: Dominated by Tesla Model Y / Model 3-type vehicles and other compact-to-midsize crossovers, so the fleet mix skews heavier.
• Europe: Dominated by a mix of compact SUVs and hatchbacks, with Model Y, ID.4, Elroq, Model 3, and Renault 5-type cars all relevant.
• China: Dominated by a broader spread, but many volume leaders are small hatchbacks/sedans like the Xingyuan, Seagull, and Mini EV, which pulls the average down in size.

Weight implication

EVs are generally 20% to 30% heavier than comparable ICE cars in the same class, mainly because of the battery pack, and some Chinese reports note that average NEV weight has risen by more than 300 kg over time. For your purposes, that means the key distinction is not just “EV vs ICE,” but which EV segment dominates in each region.

Production emissions

Production emissions are higher for EVs because battery manufacturing is energy-intensive, so the upfront footprint is usually greater than for ICE cars. The size mix matters: larger, heavier EVs generally carry more battery capacity and produce more emissions during manufacturing, while smaller city EVs have a lower manufacturing footprint.

Use-phase emissions and local grid

The local electricity mix strongly affects the use phase because EV driving emissions depend on the carbon intensity of the electricity. In regions with a cleaner grid, EVs have much lower driving emissions and repay their production “carbon debt” faster; in high-coal regions, that payback is slower.

A good regional rule of thumb is:

• Cleaner grids: lower use-phase emissions, faster payback.
• Coal-heavy grids: higher use-phase emissions, slower payback.

Combined picture, fast forward

If you combine vehicle size and grid carbon intensity, the overall pattern is:

• US: heavier EV fleet, but use-phase emissions can still be moderate to low depending on the state grid.
• Europe: mid-weight fleet, generally favorable use-phase emissions because many grids are relatively cleaner.
• China: lighter average vehicles, but use-phase emissions vary much more because provincial electricity mixes range widely in coal intensity.

The electricity mix matters most during the driving phase and can significantly affect the carbon advantage.

And then came AI and the war with Iran, with its disruption of the oil market. Both have a pernicious effect on clean-car production. The intense competition from AI data centers for clean energy reduces the options for electric car production and use powered by renewables, as was planned before. Instead, more gas and even worse, coal come into play, with devastating effects on the climate. While news reports focus on possible diesel shortages, grid blackouts receive much less attention. However, they may be fatal for the sales of electric cars.

What to do?

The automotive industry is taking steps to address production emissions. But that will be far too little, too late to have short-term effects. After all, we aim for 2030 for the first results. No electric car sold today will contribute to those under the present conditions.

A key factor is car ownership. Reducing car ownership – especially in cities – and replacing it with electric car sharing, would result in a much more effective reduction of co2 emissions in the short term. It will reduce the need for new car production and take more cars out of circulation. And it will shift from fossil miles to electric miles much faster.

Of course, this is a somewhat radical idea. But the central question is not how to sell as many electric cars as possible, it is how to reduce emissions and save the climate. That does take radical solutions to achieve it. Reports do not address that. We do.

If you are looking for an intermediate solution: drive less. If you need a car replacement, buy a used one and if this will be an ICE, go for the cleanest option available.

The report “Determining the environmental impacts of conventional and alternatively fuelled vehicles through LCA” and its associated documents are available for download from DG Climate Action’s web pages.