Fossil fuels still on the rise, despite pledges and renewables growth

Why is this important?

The rapid rise of solar and wind power creates the impression that fossil fuels are on their way out worldwide. But behind those optimistic headlines lies a more complex reality. New data show that the pace of the energy transition is slowing due to political headwinds, delayed climate policy, and growing energy demand.

Why you should read this:

Because it reveals how fragile the green revolution really is. Despite record growth in renewable electricity, the world risks missing the path to net zero — with significant consequences for the climate, the economy, and energy security.

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The overestimated rise of renewables

News stories proclaiming that solar power has overtaken coal may be far too optimistic about the trend’s continuation. The data behind those headlines cover only the first half of 2025 — a period that does not yet reflect the negative impact of far-right, climate-hostile governments. Looking at the full picture, fossil fuel use continues to rise, and with it the risk of runaway global heating.

Since 2010, global electricity production has become much greener. The share of renewables has grown from 20% in 2010 to more than 30% in 2023. Solar and wind have driven most of that growth, together generating nearly 4,000 terawatt-hours per year — more than double their output since 2016.

At the same time, overall energy consumption continues to increase. In 2023, the world generated nearly 30,000 TWh of electricity, of which around 18,000 TWh still came from fossil fuels.

Electricity, however, accounts for only a small share of total energy production. Most global energy use goes to heating and transport.

In 2024, total world energy consumption reached about 619 exajoules, or roughly 172,000 TWh. Of that, about 29,000 TWh went to electricity generation — approximately 17%. Around 32% of that electricity came from renewable sources. But if we include heat and transport, only 7–8% of all energy is renewable.

That same year, the world also saw record coal consumption, despite repeated promises to phase it down. According to the recent State of the Climate Action report, progress is lagging not just in energy, but across many areas of climate action.

From revolution to reality

Earlier scenarios from the IEA and McKinsey predicted that renewable electricity would supply 45–60% of global power by 2030, rising to 65–88% by 2040. But newer reports from the European Commission and Ember indicate a slower trajectory.

Political delays, permitting bottlenecks, and rising costs have shifted expectations:

• In 2030, renewables will likely provide 40–50% of electricity.
• By 2040, around 55–70%.

As a result, CO₂ emissions from the energy sector are not expected to decline structurally until after 2035 — at least five years later than previously thought.

Political setbacks and international delays

Politics now plays a decisive role. New, climate-skeptical governments in the US and parts of Europe have rolled back or weakened environmental regulations. If US climate programs are only restored after 2029, it could take until 2033 for the country to return to its 2024 level of climate ambition.

A recent threat by the US president to penalize countries that support new emissions rules under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also delayed implementation, adding an estimated 0.5 to 0.8 gigatons of CO₂ to global emissions compared with earlier scenarios.

The result: by 2030, renewable electricity will likely account for only 40–45% of total power generation, and renewables’ share of the overall energy system will stagnate around 9–10%. Even that may be optimistic. Many industries are scaling back or abandoning climate targets altogether, while trade tensions and war risks further slow clean investment.

The gap to net zero

To stay within the Paris Agreement goals, renewable energy would need to grow much faster. According to the IEA Net Zero by 2050 scenario:

• 60–65% of global electricity must be renewable by 2030,
• and 15–20% of total energy consumption.

Current trends fall far short: 40–45% for electricity and 9–10% for total energy. That means renewable capacity would have to nearly double its annual growth, from around 330 gigawatts per year now to at least 630 GW by 2030. Technically, that might be possible — if grid congestion were solved soon — but politically it’s becoming increasingly unlikely.

Greater climate risk in the short term

The slowdown in the energy transition has immediate implications for global warming. While recent headlines suggest emissions are falling, the latest projections show the opposite: warming will likely continue faster and longer than previously expected.

Because fossil fuels will dominate for at least another decade, global greenhouse gas emissions won’t start falling steadily until after 2035. This means:

• An extra “mountain” of tens of gigatons of CO₂ between 2025 and 2035.
• A likely breach of the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade, rather than around 2045.
• A growing risk of climate feedback loops: melting ice sheets, ocean acidification, and irreversible ecosystem damage.

Every year of delay compounds the challenge — every ton of CO₂ not cut now makes it harder to limit warming later.

Shifting climate thresholds

Recent estimates from the IPCC and Climate Analytics suggest that with current policies (40–45% renewables in 2030), global temperatures will rise by about 2.4–2.7°C by 2100.
Even if all national climate pledges (NDCs) are met, warming will likely stay around 2°C — still above the Paris limit.

That half-degree difference is enormous in impact:

• At 1.5°C, heatwaves double compared to preindustrial times.
• At 2°C, they quadruple, and droughts, wildfires, and crop failures surge.
• Coral reefs disappear almost entirely, and coastal flooding becomes an annual reality.

Growing global inequality

The slowdown in decarbonization also worsens climate inequality. Developing countries face the harshest effects — drought, flooding, and crop loss — while contributing least to global emissions.

Meanwhile, more prosperous nations increasingly rely on carbon offsets and removals instead of real emission cuts, shifting responsibility southward and straining climate diplomacy.

Approaching tipping points

If emissions peak too late, the risk of crossing tipping points — irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system — rises sharply. These include:

• The melting of the Greenland ice sheet,
• The collapse of the Amazon rainforest,
• The release of methane from thawing permafrost.

Some thresholds, such as coral reef collapse, may already have been crossed.

Two-track framing

Fossil-linked lobbying groups have long dismissed climate change as a hoax, spreading disinformation and confusion. But another, subtler problem has emerged. In researching this article, more than 90% of online sources on “renewables versus fossil fuels” focused only on electricity generation, not total energy use — often overstating renewable shares and projections.

This raises the question: is an overly positive picture being painted to reassure climate advocates that progress is on track, even though it isn’t?

In summary

Renewable energy is growing, but not fast enough to displace fossil fuels — and perhaps not even fast enough to keep pace with rising demand. Fossil fuels still expand their share, driving higher emissions and worsening climate damage.

Without a major acceleration by 2030, global warming will likely exceed 2.5°C, with exponentially greater consequences for the planet, the economy, and society.

Whether that scenario becomes reality depends on political choices in the next five years. The technology to cut emissions exists; what’s missing is time and the will to act.