The climate cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached new heights after 3 years of war. Emissions rose by 31% in 2024 to nearly 230 (229.7) million tonnes of CO2 equivalent since the full scale invasion began on 24 February 2022, according to an authoritative annual analysis published at the three year anniversary point. This is the equivalent of the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined, or the annual emissions of 120 million cars.
As fighting continued, heavy vehicles burned through fuel and steel and concrete poured into fortifications, emissions from military activity continued a steady growth in 2024, overtaking the other major category of climate costs; the reconstruction of damaged buildings and infrastructure.
Climate-driven forest fires were a defining feature of 2024. Fighting combined with intense summer drought across much of Ukraine, causing the area of conflict-related landscape fires to double (118%) compared to the wartime annual average for previous years and emitting 16.9 MtCO2e of emissions. Ukraine was plagued by forest fires in 2024 compared to the rest of Europe, according to data compiled from the European Forest Fire Information System, with the war a major trigger.
A greater use of drones in 2024 did little to offset the use of climate-costly artillery shells. Intensified attacks on energy infrastructure brought a 16% rise in this category of conflict emissions in 2024. Oil infrastructure was particularly hard hit, causing emissions to surge from 1.1 MtCO2e in 2022 and 2023 combined to 2.1 MtCO2e in 2024. Planes continued avoiding or were banned from airspace above Russia and Ukraine, pushing conflict-related aviation emissions up to 14.4 MtCO2e since the invasion began. Emissions tied to fleeing refugees remained largely unchanged in 2024.
The study by the non-profit Initiative on GHG Accounting of War is endorsed by the Ukrainian government and co-authored by IPCC member Svitlana Krakovska. She will deliver the findings in a speech this morning at the 62nd session of the IPCC in Hangzhou, China.
The Russian Federation should be held liable for these emissions and resulting climate-related damage, the group said. It applied a ‘social cost of carbon’ of 185 US Dollars per tonne of CO2 equivalent to put Russia’s liability after 3 years of war at over $42 billion.
